// description
The Delphi method gathers expert opinion through multiple rounds of anonymous questionnaires. After each round, a facilitator summarises the responses and shares the aggregate results with the panel. Experts then revise their answers in light of the group's feedback. Over successive rounds, the range of responses typically narrows, and the group converges toward a more informed consensus or clarifies the reasons for persistent disagreement.
// history
The RAND Corporation developed the Delphi method in the early 1950s as part of a US Air Force-sponsored project to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey are credited as the primary architects. The method was classified until 1963, after which it was adopted across fields including healthcare, education, and technology forecasting.
// example
A self-publishing platform wants to predict which creator income streams will grow fastest over three years. They recruit a panel of 15 experienced KDP sellers, Etsy shop owners, and digital course creators. Round one asks each to rank income stream types. Results show strong agreement that Etsy digital downloads and online courses will grow, but disagreement on whether POD physical books will keep pace. Round two shares reasoning from each position, and several experts revise estimates after seeing data on AI-assisted design and KDP royalty structure changes. The final report gives the platform clear direction for its product roadmap.
// katharyne's take
You can run a lightweight Delphi process within your creator community to make collective decisions — like deciding what topics to cover in a group coaching programme. Poll your community with a ranked question, share the anonymised results and reasoning, then poll again. Two rounds is usually enough to find strong consensus areas while preserving genuine disagreement where it exists. It's far more informative than a simple "what do you want to learn?" poll because the feedback loop forces people to engage with perspectives they hadn't considered.
// creative uses
- Run a two-round Delphi with your email list to determine your next course topic: Round 1 asks them to rank five options and explain their top choice in one sentence. You share anonymised results and reasoning excerpts, then Round 2 asks them to re-rank with the benefit of seeing the group's thinking. The shift between rounds reveals what actually persuades your audience.
- Use the Delphi method to crowdsource trend predictions from your most experienced community members: ask what KDP niches, Etsy product types, or Midjourney aesthetics they predict will peak in the next 12 months. Two rounds of this, with shared reasoning between, produces a community-generated market intelligence report you can publish as content.
- Apply Delphi to a pricing decision for a new product: ask a small panel of trusted peers or community members what they think a fair price is and why. Share the range of answers anonymously and ask them to reconsider. The resulting consensus (or clear disagreement) gives you better pricing data than any competitor research tool.
// quick actions
- Design a two-question survey to send to your most engaged email subscribers: Question 1 is a ranking or prediction question. After you receive responses, compile the most common answers and one representative reason for each position, then send a follow-up with those results and ask if anyone wants to change their answer. That's a Delphi round.
- Post a Round 1 question in your community group asking for a product or niche prediction with reasoning. After 48 hours, post a "here's what the community said" summary, then ask for a Round 2 response. The engagement on Round 2 is almost always higher because people are responding to real peer thinking.
- Use Delphi internally with a mastermind: before your next meeting, send one strategic question to all members asynchronously. Compile answers, share them anonymised before the meeting, and use the compiled responses as the meeting agenda. You'll spend less time generating ideas and more time making decisions.
// prompt ideas
Help me design a two-round Delphi survey for my email list to decide [my next course topic / best product idea / which niche to enter]. Write the Round 1 question, the format for collecting and summarising responses, and the Round 2 question that shows participants the aggregated results and asks them to reconsider. Keep the whole thing completable in under 5 minutes per respondent.
Simulate a mini Delphi process for me: take the perspective of 5 different experienced creators in [my niche] and give me their independent initial answers to this question: [paste your strategic question]. Then share those perspectives with each other and show me how the consensus or disagreement shifts in Round 2.
I want to use the Delphi method to forecast which [KDP niches / Etsy product types / creator income streams] will grow most over the next 18 months. Design a two-question survey I can post in my creator community — one ranking question and one "explain your reasoning" question — plus a summary template I can use to share Round 1 results back before Round 2.