// description
The Kepner-Tregoe method provides four structured thinking processes: Situation Appraisal (breaking a complex situation into manageable components), Problem Analysis (finding the root cause of a deviation from expected performance), Decision Analysis (evaluating alternatives against objectives and risks), and Potential Problem/Opportunity Analysis (anticipating future risks and preparing responses). The method relies on specific "is/is not" comparisons at each stage.
// history
Charles Kepner and Benjamin Tregoe, both social scientists at the RAND Corporation, developed the method in the late 1950s and published it in their 1965 book The Rational Manager. They founded Kepner-Tregoe Inc. to teach the methodology, which was adopted by organisations including NASA, the US military, and major manufacturing companies.
// example
An Etsy seller notices that her conversion rate dropped significantly three weeks ago. Kepner-Tregoe Problem Analysis: the deviation started on a specific date (when). It affects all listings, not just new ones (where). Conversion was normal before that date (what changed). The "is/is not" comparison reveals: Etsy's search algorithm updated on that date, affecting how her listings appear in search results for her primary keywords. The root cause is the algorithm change, not her listings. The corrective action is keyword optimisation to match the new algorithm's ranking signals, not redesigning her products, which she might have done without the systematic analysis.
// katharyne's take
The "is/is not" comparison technique from Kepner-Tregoe is something I use constantly when diagnosing problems in my business. If sales drop, asking "when exactly did this start?" and "which products are affected?" narrows the cause much faster than broad speculation. Most problems have a specific trigger that points directly to the cause — you just have to look for the boundary of where the problem exists versus where it doesn't. That boundary tells you everything. This technique is also brilliant for diagnosing KDP listing performance issues — the comparison between what IS working and what ISN'T is where the insight lives.
// creative uses
- When a KDP title suddenly drops in rank, apply the is/is-not method before changing anything: Is the drop across all keywords or specific ones? Is it this title only or your whole portfolio? Did it start after a cover change, a price change, or an Amazon algorithm update? The boundary of the problem points directly to the fix.
- Use Potential Problem Analysis before a course launch: list everything that could go wrong, then add a "preventive action" and a "contingency response" for each item. This is the Kepner-Tregoe version of a pre-mortem — more systematic, with specific countermeasures attached to each risk.
- Apply the Decision Analysis process to your annual tool and subscription audit. For each tool (ConvertKit, Canva Pro, Midjourney subscription, Erank), run: what are my must-have objectives? Does this tool meet them? What are the alternatives? What are the risks of switching? The structured process replaces gut-feel renewal with a defensible choice.
// quick actions
- For your current most frustrating business problem, write two columns: IS (exactly where, when, what, and how much the problem occurs) and IS NOT (where it doesn't occur, which products aren't affected, which time periods were normal). The difference between the two columns is your cause.
- The next time you want to change something that's broken, force yourself to do the is/is-not analysis first. Identify the exact start date of the problem and list every change that happened in the 72 hours before it. One of those changes is almost always the cause.
- Build a simple Google Sheet with four columns: What happened, When it started, What changed around that time, What is NOT affected. Fill it in for any business metric that moves unexpectedly. Use it as your standard diagnostic before making any reactive changes to listings, pricing, or strategy.
// prompt ideas
Walk me through a Kepner-Tregoe Problem Analysis for this business issue: [describe the problem — e.g. my Etsy conversion rate dropped, a specific KDP title stopped selling, my email open rates fell]. Use the is/is-not method: ask me what is affected vs. what isn't, when it started, what changed around that time, and how much the deviation is. Then help me identify the most likely root cause.
I need to make a significant business decision: [describe it — e.g. which email platform to move to, whether to expand to a new marketplace, which product type to focus on next quarter]. Apply Kepner-Tregoe Decision Analysis: help me define my must objectives and want objectives, evaluate my options against them with weighted scoring, and identify the key risks of the highest-scoring option.
I'm about to [launch a new product / move to a new platform / change my pricing / run a paid campaign]. Apply Kepner-Tregoe Potential Problem Analysis: list the 5-7 most likely things that could go wrong, rate each by probability and impact, and for each one give me both a preventive action (to reduce the chance it happens) and a contingency action (if it happens anyway).